February 5, 2019 10:15 a.m. Bonds Rally After Presidential Dinner Date-by-Lester Murray
This morning's rally in the Treasury market has pushed the Ten-Year's yield back to just below 2.70%. Whether or not that's a result of last night's bread-breaking between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell is unclear, but investors may be feeling reassured that the Fed's Chief and the nation's Commander-in-Chief have at least read the same menu. Backup was provided by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Fed Vice-Chairman Richard Clarida.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, not invited to dinner, gave a speech last night in which she reminded everyone that future rate hikes might be in order if the economy performed as well as what she expected. As one of the more hawkish members of the FOMC, her remarks were not surprising. The surprise would be if her economic forecast were actually accurate.
The release of early morning Purchasing Managers' reports from Markit Services, a private firm, were right on top of expectations and modestly constructive, while the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) Services (non-manufacturing) Index came in at 56.7; still in an expansionary range, but below the 57.1 that investors were expecting.
Equities arrows are green and pointing up after some positive earnings reports from BP initiated an overnight rally in Europe that seems to have made its way here. WTI is holding pretty steady between $54 and $54.50.
Posted on Tue, February 5, 2019
by Lester Murray