Friday, November 2, 2018 Job Report Note - by Jeff Caughron

Nice jump in job creation for the month: 250K new payrolls vs 200K projected, accompanied by a 3.7% unemployment rate which was expected. The prior month however, was revised downward to just 118K from initially reported 134K. There was some noise from storms in this data collection period. Wage growth came in as advertised at 3.1%, the highest in nearly a decade. Participation was up a touch, and the “underemployment” rate ticked down to 7.4%. This is reminiscent of the fourth quarter of 2006 when the unemployment rate hit its cycle low for that period of 4.4%... the following year saw a steady deterioration of the economy which led to the financial crisis and great recession.  The 10yr note yield is now trading at 3.18%, down three-eighths. The 2yr note sits at 2.88%.

US Unemployment Rate: 2000 - Today