June 3, 2019 The Yield Curve is a Slippery Slope by Lester Murray

For those watching the shape of the yield curve these days, and who isn't, the downhill slide from 90 days to Ten Years has gotten a little more downhill.  Investors can get around 2.32% on Three-month bills today, but only about 2.11% for Ten-Year Notes. That -21 basis point difference is a significant change from recent magnitudes in the mid-teens.

Ever-expanding trade tensions have regenerated fresh concerns for challenges to growth everywhere. As in globally. Germany's Ten-Year bond recently hit a new record-low yield of -0.2%; not something that one would normally associate with an expectation of economic effervescence.

This morning, JP Morgan analysts increased the odds of a second-half domestic recession to 40% from 25%.


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