March 6, 2019 Data Drives Dow Down; Bonds Like It by Lester Murray
The road to diminishing trade deficits is paved with good intentions, but those good intentions do not seem to be helping. The nation's export/import deficit widened to a 10-year high in December as that month's imbalance alone came in at -$59.8B, or about $10B greater than expected. In addition, investors learned that Mortgage Applications fell 2.5% last week and, as a sometimes precursor to the BLS report scheduled for Friday, the ADP private payroll report showed a smaller increase in its calculation of job growth than experts expected.
And out of Europe, Brexit battles continue unabated and demands for a second referendum grow louder and more insistent. Yet another vote on a workable plan to separate from the EU is scheduled for next week and yet another defeat for the beleaguered Prime Minister is likely in store. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is likely to cut its economic forecasts for the EU. Mario Draghi, head of the ECB, will be making a public statement about monetary policy on Thursday. Domestically, sentiment over the ebbs and flows of a trade agreement with China has investors ebbing and flowing right along with it. The Dow is off about 100 points at the moment while an upward edging of bond prices has pushed the Ten-Year's yield back below 2.70%.
Posted on Wed, March 6, 2019
by Lester Murray