A Positive Datapoint to Start the Week

The Chicago Fed announced this morning that its National Activity Index massively beat estimates in May while also managing a return into positive territory. April’s downwardly revised value of minus 17.89 was only expected to recover to minus 10, but instead surged to a positive 2.61. This represents another unexpected bit of good news after last week’s huge and surprising comeback in the New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Index. A little later this morning, the news might be a little less encouraging when a May report for Existing Home Sales is forecast to show a 7.6% decline in that volume.

Despite some uncomfortable reports of rising numbers of infections in many states, reopening efforts continue and investors seem to feel good about those efforts. Equity markets will likely open in the green while Treasury bond prices have ticked up here and there in early trading. The Treasury’s Ten-Year yield is little changed at around 68 basis points as the Two-Year anchors the short end at around 19 basis points. Crude oil is little changed at just a nudge under $40 while gold is up around $8.50 to $1,752.