Jobless Claims Dip as Inflation Rises

It’s Thursday morning and the BLS just announced that, for the week ending September 26th, 837k Initial Unemployment Claims were made. This is a little less than the 850k that were expected and a little less than the prior week’s 870k. Continuing Claims for the week ending September 19, fell to 11.8M from 12.6M versus a forecast of 12.2M.

Also released was news of a 2.7% decline in August’s Personal Income against an expected 2.5% pullback reflecting the expiration of some supplemental unemployment benefits. Personal Spending still managed to rise 1% in August as July’s 1.9% boost was revised to 1.5%. Inflation adjusted Real Personal Spending rose by 0.7% and that was slightly greater than the expected gain of 0.5%. The prior month’s jump of 1.6% was revised to 1.1%.

Investors have also learned today that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose by the widely expected 0.3% in August and that took the year-over-year headline rate to 1.4% from July’s revised 1.1%. Without food and energy, core PCE also rose by 0.3% for the month while August’s year-over-year rate rose to 1.6% from an upwardly revised 1.4%.

A little later, the Institute of Supply Management will release its Manufacturing Index for September. Meanwhile, the Treasury market continues a sell-off that has pushed the Ten-Year’s yield up to 70 basis points as the Long Bond sneaks up on 1.50%. With the Two-Year still at around 13 basis points, the slope of the yield curve has steepened a bit. Gold is up about $20 so far and that takes the price to around $1,908 while crude oil languishes just under $40. Equity indices are still looking pretty green in pre-opening trading.