Lots of numbers this morning beginning with the BLS report on Jobless Claims. Initial Claims for the week ending January 23rd totaled 847k and that was less than the 875k that was expected and also less than the prior week’s upwardly revised 914k. Continuing Claims for the week ending January 16th came in below 5M for the first time since the lockdown at 4.77M against an expectation of 5.09M. The prior week was revised from 5.05M to 4.97M. We also learned from the Census Bureau that the nation’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to minus $82.5B from $85.5B versus a forecast of $84B.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported its first estimate of Q4 GDP to be 4% and that was slightly lower than the consensus estimate of 4.2%, but other estimates varied widely. Personal Consumption for the last quarter grew 2.5% and that was a disappointment for analysts looking for 3.1%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index without food and energy rose 1.4% in Q4 and that was slightly higher than the 1.2% forecast. A little later today, the Conference Board will publish its Index of Leading Indicators, the Census Bureau will announce New Home Sales for December, and the Kansas City Fed will report on its Manufacturing Index for January.
Treasury prices have slipped from slightly up to slightly down since the release of this morning’s data with the Ten-Year yielding 1.03% and the Long Bond at 1.78%. The Two-Year is unchanged at 12 basis points. Crude oil is up slightly to $53.05 while gold’s $10 rally takes that price to $1,854. Equity markets are significantly in the green looking to recover some of yesterday’s lost ground.