Jobless Claims Rise, Stimulus Hopes Fall

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that, for the week ending October 10th, Initial Jobless Claims rose by 898k against an estimate of 825k. The prior week’s count of 840k was revised to 845k. Continuing Claims for the week ending October 3rd came in at 10.02M, lower than the 10.55M that was forecast. The prior week’s tally of 10.98M was revised to 11.18M. A bit of a shadow has been cast over these numbers as California’s massive backlog of unprocessed claims may be affecting the accuracy of that state’s reporting.

Also out this morning, the New York Fed announced that its Empire Manufacturing Index fell further than expected this month to a new value of 10.5 from 17 as analysts only expected a fall to 14. Going the other way was the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey Index. September’s value of 15 was expected to fall slightly to 14.8, but instead came in at a rip-roaring 32.3. The BLS also reported that its Import Price Index rose by the expected 0.3% last month while the Export Price Index rose by 0.6%, twice what was expected.

Treasury prices, already rallying before any of this morning’s data, have pushed the Ten-Year’s yield down to around 68 basis points with the Long Bond falling to 1.45%. The Two-Year will get you around 13 basis points. Equity indices are deeply red mostly due to waning hopes for another fiscal stimulus package and disquieting news of possible new lockdown measures across Europe. Crude oil is down almost $1.50 to $39.61 as gold also slips a bit to $1,895.