Manufacturing Measure Beats Estimates

The New York Federal Reserve Bank announced this morning that its Empire Manufacturing Index soared unexpectedly this month to a value of 17. This represents a marked improvement from August’s level of 3.7 and soundly beat pre-release estimates looking for a move to just 6.9.

Also out this morning, the BLS released some trade-related inflation news with the announcement that its Import Price Index rose by a greater-than-expected 0.9% in August as July’s rise of 0.7% was revised to 1.2%. Year-over-year, however, that measure fell to minus 1.4% last month; less deflationary than the minus 2.1% survey estimate. July’s twelve-month rate was revised to minus 2.8% from minus 3.3%. The deflationary impact of the pandemic is not small.

For things we sell abroad, the Export Price Index rose by a slightly greater-than-expected 0.5% taking the year-over-year rate to minus 2.8% while July’s twelve-month rate was revised to minus 3.8% from minus 4.4%.

Treasuries are trading slightly weaker with the Ten-Year yielding around 68 basis points while the Long Bond’s yield hovers just over 1.40%. Equities look to open with green arrows as crude oil rallies slightly to just under $38. Gold is up almost $12 to $1,969. A little later this morning, reports for Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are scheduled for release and the FOMC begins its meeting today.