Stimulus Hopes Fade While Bonds Rally

The lack of any over-the-weekend progress on Congressional stimulus negotiations has made it look unlikely that any new measures will be forthcoming before next week’s Presidential election. As equity markets lament that prospect, the Treasury market is enjoying an early morning rally. The yield on the Ten-Year is down slightly to around 80 basis points as the Long Bond’s price gain of almost a full point has pushed that yield down to around 1.60%. Not much is happening in the short-end, though, and the Two-Year is unchanged at 15 basis points. Also this morning, the Chicago Fed is lamenting the fall in its National Activity Index to 0.27 in September from an upwardly revised value of 1.11 in August. Forecasters were only looking for a slight pullback to 0.73. A little later this morning, the Census Bureau is expected to report that New Home Sales rose about 1.4% in September after August’s brisk rise of 4.8%. Meanwhile, crude oil’s early slide of about $1 has taken its price to $38.90 while gold is up slightly to $1,906.