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Under Pressure: Deposit Betas in 2023

In science class we were taught that pressure is the application of force against an object. As bankers, we think about pressure as it relates…
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Municipal Credit Update: Inflation Effects on Municipal Finances

In early 2020, municipal credit concerns were abundant and tax revenue plunged due to pandemic shutdowns. Since then, average state and local tax revenue has…
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Don’t Fully Bet on One Rate Outcome

As a young aspiring bank examiner in 2009, I first learned about interest rate risk management during a period of zero interest rate policy, which…
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Will the Federal Reserve Sell MBS?

This question is likely to garner different responses, depending on who you ask, and a plethora of caveats. It is a tough call for the…
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Focus on Interest Rate Risk Management

“The relative calm in financial markets recently has caused a significant degree of complacency. The truth of the matter is that we are probably in…
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The Importance of Asset Pricing and ALM Strategy for Credit Unions

As if navigating the 2008 Housing Crisis and 2020 Global Pandemic weren’t enough, credit unions now face the most feared economic monster of all –…
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The Importance of Asset Pricing and ALM Strategy for Banks

As if navigating the 2008 Housing Crisis and 2020 Global Pandemic weren’t enough, banks now face the most feared economic monster of all – inflation.…
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Interest Rate Risk in 2022: Assumption Junction

In March this year, the Federal Reserve lifted interest rates for the first time since 2018. Today, both the bond market and FOMC have set…
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Deposit Betas: Looking into the Future

Over the last two years, the banking industry has experienced massive deposit growth, which flooded banks with excess liquidity. Most of the deposits flowed in…
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2022 Key MBS Themes and the Case for Specified Pools

The mortgage market is already off to a volatile start in 2022 with Treasury yields soaring, spreads widening, and mortgage rates breaching 4%. The Federal…
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Public Pension Update

Municipal bond investors finally have some good news regarding public pension plans after worrying about growing unfunded pension liabilities for many years. The Pew Charitable…
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The Fed’s Balancing Act for 2022

On the first trading day of 2022 the US 10yr Treasury Note yield jumped above 1.60%, then traded up another 10bps in the two subsequent…
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Is Your Investment Portfolio Properly Anchored

Many financial institutions saw record investment growth in 2020/21 as large stimulus payments bloated balance sheets and far outpaced loan demand. This surge in deposit…
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Under Pressure – Net Interest Margins

A long time ago there was an adage in the banking industry known as the “3-6-3 rule,” meaning the banker would gather deposits at three…
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New Mortgage Modification Options

By year end, over half of Government-Sponsored Enterprise “GSE” (conventional) forbearance plans and approximately 70% of Ginnie Mae forbearance plans are estimated to expire. Conventional…
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Checking In on the Banking Industry

2020 was a year of challenges in many aspects of life, business, and the economy. The start of 2021 brought a close to a tumultuous…
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Trusting the Fed on Inflation

The narrative for the US economy has shifted as we move into the second half of this year. Not long ago, financial markets were saturated…
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Muni Credit Update

 At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, strict shutdowns and stay-at-home orders created concern for the economy and municipal finances. Forecasts…
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Is Opportunity Cost Hurting Our Bottom Line

 As the US economy continues to work its way out of the recession brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, many economists debate what the future…
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Perspective on Inflation Dynamics in 2021

The Fear There is growing concern that the trillions of dollars of stimulus created by governments and central banks to fight the economic fallout of…
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