Market Moment

The Baker Market Moment is your way to stay on top of the latest in economic events and market-moving news. Whether it’s the latest news from the Fed or the latest number from Wall Street, the Baker Market Moment is where you can find it.

Incomes Surge Unexpectedly in April

Just out this morning, Personal Income in April grew by 10.5% and that comes as a big surprise to analysts who had anticipated a 5.9% fall. On the other side of things, Personal Spending plunged by 13.6% while pre-release estimates were looking for a 12.8% decline. Real Personal Spending, adjusted

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“Less Bad” Numbers

This morning’s announcement by the BLS that Initial Jobless Claims rose by 2.12M for the week ending May 23rd was slightly higher than the 2.1M that was expected, but the 21.01M Continuing Claims for the prior week was far less than the 25.7M that was anticipated. Perhaps a sign that

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Reopening Rally Continues

Optimism and enthusiasm regarding the nation’s commercial reopening continue to drive equity prices higher as positive data adds support. On the heels of yesterday’s better-than-expected New Home Sales report for April, the Mortgage Bankers Association announced this morning that, for the week ending May 22nd, new Mortgage Applications rose 2.7%.

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Reopenings Rally Stocks

Investors’ spirits, perhaps buoyed by widespread reopenings around the country over this past holiday weekend, are poised to open substantially higher as slipping bond prices have pushed the Ten-Year’s yield back up to almost 70 basis points. More news from Merck about a possible treatment medication and vaccine has also

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Housing Starts Fell Hard in April

The Census Bureau just reported that Housing Starts in April fell by 30.2% to an annualized growth rate of 891k as new Building Permits plunged by 20.8%. Pre-release surveys expected a Starts drop of just 26% while Permits had been anticipated to fall by 25.9%. Despite the sharp declines in

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Vaccine Hopes Infect Markets

An announcement by Moderna Inc. that it has seen positive results in its clinical trials of a potential coronavirus vaccine has pushed the DJIA up over 600 points in overnight trading. Treasury bonds are seeing a moderate sell-off that has pushed the Ten-Year’s yield up to around 66 basis points.

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Little Let-Up in Jobless Claims

A larger-than-expected rise of 2.98M in the number of Initial Jobless Claims along with negative follow-through from yesterday’s remarks by Jerome Powell have worked to push bond prices higher and equity prices lower this morning. For the week ending May 9th, only 2.5M new filers were expected after the previous

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Wholesale Inflation Fell Sharply in April

Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning following this morning’s Producer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to the BLS, headline PPI fell by 1.3% last month against an expected decline of just 0.5%. The year-over-year rate plunged to a deflationary minus 1.2% versus an anticipated

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Inflation Falls; Bonds Quiet

Treasury bond prices are starting off the day little changed from yesterday amid news that inflation fell significantly in April. The Benchmark Ten-Year’s yield is resting around 71 basis points despite the news that the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.8% last month. Last month’s decline helped bring the year-over-year

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April Jobs Report Highlights

The pre-release anticipation of an extremely negative Unemployment Report did not disappoint. But, it could have been worse. Non-Farm Payrolls fell by 20.5M and that was not quite as bad as the 22M that many expected. The Unemployment Rate soared to 14.7% while surveys suggested it might be as high

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Afternoon Wrap-Up

Bonds continued to rally throughout the day as the ride for equities was a little bumpier. Still, the DJIA finished up about 211 points higher. With this morning’s bigger-than-expected Jobless Claims numbers and the prospect of a doomsday-looking employment report tomorrow, the Ten-Year gained about 5/8 of a point pushing

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Relentless Jobless Claims

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 2nd rose by 3.169M against an expected increase of just 3M. The claims count, though higher than predicted, continues a downward trend after the prior week’s 3.846M. Continuing Claims came in much higher

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Lost Jobs and More Bonds

As expected, ADP Payroll Services announced this morning that the economy lost 20.236 million jobs in April and that was slightly less than the 20.5M that was forecast. Also released this morning was a report showing that Mortgage Applications rose by 0.1% for the week ending May 1. The prior

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Bonds Slip as Oil Rallies

Treasury bond prices are poised to open slightly lower this morning as crude oil prices have rallied by almost $3/barrel to around $23. Overnight, equity markets around the world have rallied on the news that more economies are starting to relax various degrees of pandemic mitigation efforts. The Treasury’s Ten-Year

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Afternoon Wrap-Up

After this morning’s flurry of mostly disappointing consumer and jobless data, the Treasury market finished out the day with prices little changed. But, a one-point drop in the Long Bond still left its yield slightly below 1.30%. The Ten-Year’s yield is little changed at around 63 basis points. Equities rallied

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