Baker Market Update – wk220624

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Bond prices continued to rally this week with the 3-year Treasury yield falling 24bp and the 10-year down 11bp as of this writing. On the short-end of the curve, 3- and 6-month bills rose 7bp and 24bp respectively. The yield curve has flattened sharply since mid last week as the market continues to “unwind” some […]

Baker Market Update – wk220527

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This week showed a continuation of recent trends, with one exception. Economic reports continued to come in weaker than expected as the impact of higher rates began to spread through the economy. Inflation and inflation expectations continued to fall as the most severe effects of the pandemic continued to dissipate. Bond yields continued to fall […]

Baker Market Update – wk220401

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Today’s Employment Report all but ensures the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 50bp in May for the first time in 22 years. No, that’s not an April Fool’s joke, just my opinion based on a few factors: Job growth is strong. The economy added 431,000 jobs in March and although that was less than […]

Baker Market Update – wk220218

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The recent surge in bond yields took a breather this week as the risk of the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II overshowed soaring inflation and the potential for a more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle in 2022. The 2-year Treasury yield peaked at 1.58% on Tuesday, up 137bp since Sep 2021, […]

Baker Market Update – wk211105

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If you were to ask anyone what would happen to bond yields if it was reported in a single week that the stock market hit another record high, the economy added more than 500,000 jobs and the Federal Reserve announced they would immediately begin buying $15 billion fewer bonds a month, they would almost surely […]

Baker Market Update – wk211022

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This has been a week of highs. Stock prices hit a record high on Thursday and is now up more than 100% since the March 2020 low. Bitcoin hit a record high near $67,000, up more than 100% in just the last 3 months. The price of crude oil hit $83.37, the highest level since […]

Baker Market Update – wk210917

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This week’s economic data were welcome news for the Federal Reserve, showing both a slowdown of inflation and an unexpected increase in Retail Sales. The Fed has long held to its expectation that the recent spike in consumer prices was driven by temporary pandemic related factors and the currently higher than desired level of inflation […]

Baker Market Update – wk210827

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All eyes were on the Federal Reserve this week leading up to the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium as markets awaited any news that the Fed would soon begin to “taper” their $120 billion of monthly bond purchases. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spoke early Friday morning saying “We should be trying to get our policies […]

Baker Market Update – wk210723

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This week saw Treasury yields endure another roller coaster ride only to end relatively unchanged from last Friday. Concern over surging COVID-19 cases around the world driven by the virulent Delta variant caused stock prices and bond yields to plunge Monday. The Dow Jones was down nearly 950 points at one point before finishing the […]

Baker Market Update – wk210625

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It’s now been a week since the FOMC released their updated “Dot Plot” showing voting members expect two 25bp rate hikes by the end of 2023 and the bond market remains unfazed. The 10-year Treasury yield is down about 10bp since the June 16 meeting and is now down a full 25bp since the March […]