Baker Market Update 2026-07-10

Is it Friday already? It sure is! You know what that means…yes, it’s time for a lookback at this week’s key economic data releases. The catch is that it was a calm week in the world of economic data. I will ensure this week’s Baker Market update is longer than the June FOMC Statement, but I can’t guarantee too much more! Let’s dive in…

On Monday, we received the ISM services index which came in at 54.0, in line with expectations. Remember that any number above 50 indicates expansion in the U.S. service sector. Monday’s print reflects 24 months in a row of a print in expansionary territory. A better start to the week that the US Men’s National Team against Belgium! To quote the late NFL Head Coach Dennis Green, “…they are who we thought they were, and we let ‘em off the hook!” I guess we must wait until 2030.

On Wednesday, the FOMC minutes for the June Meeting were released. This was Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair and the committee unanimously held the funds rate at 3.5% - 3.75% and Warsh characterized the internal debate as a “family fight.” Policymakers were split on the future of interest rates with officials offering competing cases for hikes or cuts. True to Warsh’s dislike for forward guidance, the meeting summary provided little information on where policymakers stand for the future, noting that decisions would be made based on “incoming information”.

As we do every Thursday, we received the weekly jobless claims data. Initial claims fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000, below the 217,000 forecasts, pushing the four-week average down to 218,750. Continuing claims rose to 8,000 to 1,814,000, the highest since late March but below the 1,820,000 expected. This week’s data is consistent with a low fire, low hire labor market.

Additionally on Thursday, June’s existing home sales data was released, and sales fell 2.4% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 4.09 million. This was a bit of a miss as economists were expecting a 4.20 million pace. The median existing home price increased 1.8% from a year ago, up to $440,600. This reflects the 36th consecutive month of year over year price increases.

The stock and bond markets saw some volatility this week with renewed concerns on the conflict with Iran. Next week is a big week for economic data releases, including Tuesday’s release of the Consumer Price Index for the month of June and Wednesday’s Producer Price Index for the month of June. The market’s focus will likely not be on the headline CPI which is heavily energy driven, rather the Core CPI, Shelter Inflation and Supercore (services excluding shelter). Later in the week, we get insight into Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. Stay tuned and have a great weekend!