Articles & Insights

Stay informed and up to date on the latest financial topics. Read articles written by our financial strategies team.

Perspective on Inflation Dynamics in 2021

The Fear There is growing concern that the trillions of dollars of stimulus created by governments and central banks to fight the economic fallout of the coronavirus will explode through the economy and cause a surge in inflation in the second half of 2021. Sustained upward price pressures would cause

Continue Reading

Muni Bonds and Rate Volatility

Interest rates go up, prices go down. Ask any fixed income portfolio manager in the world what the first rule of investing in bonds is and you’ll hear the phrase above or something similar. And while the notion that bond prices decline as interest rates increase is not a matter

Continue Reading

Riding the Liquidity Waves

Before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold on the world and the United States, many community bankers watched the slow fall of their on-balance sheet liquidity. Throughout the last decade of economic expansion, many community banks’ loan demand consistently outpaced deposit growth. At the beginning of 2020, bankers’ expectations for the

Continue Reading

Forbearance Expiry Expectations

A wave of forbearance expirations expected this spring has investors anxiously awaiting clarity on what it will mean for the mortgage market. COVID-19 forbearance plans introduced by the CARES Act last year make it possible for any borrower with a mortgage backed by Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie to stop paying their loan for

Continue Reading

PPP Loans: Modeling the Madness

By Dale Sheller and Matt Harris As summer winds down, the same goes for the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) as August 8 was the final day for application. This critical but controversial component of the $2 trillion CARES ACT passed in March this year created over $525 billion in loans

Continue Reading

Last Call for LIBOR

With all the distractions and distracting challenges faced this year by the nation’s community bankers, it’s easy to understand how some may have lost track of an approaching deadline that could have significant consequences for their institutions and their customers. Unless something changes, and the authorities have been pretty clear

Continue Reading

Managing Bank Liquidity and Performance After COVID-19

2020 will certainly be remembered as the year Covid-19 changed the world as we know it. Likewise, the associated “Lockdown Recession” is already changing the way many banks manage their balance sheets. With loan demand dropping in most parts of the country and stimulus deposits adding to already bloated cash

Continue Reading

Interest Rate Risk Doesn’t Do Quarantines

The world has changed. The nation’s economic lockdown has given previously confident consumers a new and cautious attitude of frugality. The propensity to borrow and spend has turned into an inclination to deleverage and save. Once prosperous businesses struggle to stay afloat as society and culture adjust to a new,

Continue Reading

Managing Credit Union Liquidity and Performance After COVID-19

2020 will certainly be remembered as the year Covid-19 changed the world as we know it. Likewise, the associated “Lockdown Recession” is already changing the way many credit union leaders manage their balance sheets. With loan demand dropping in most parts of the country and stimulus deposits adding to already

Continue Reading

Federal Reserve to Provide Lending Facility to Municipalities

The Federal Reserve just announced a new Municipal Lending Facility targeted to specific state and local governments. The facility will buy up to $500 billion of short-term notes directly from states and local governments. Only cities with a population of at least one million residents and counties with a population

Continue Reading