Articles & Insights

Stay informed and up to date on the latest financial topics. Read articles written by our financial strategies team.

What Will New Mortgage Modification Options Mean for Buyouts?

By year end, over half of Government-Sponsored Enterprise “GSE” (conventional) forbearance plans and approximately 70% of Ginnie Mae forbearance plans are estimated to expire. Conventional buyouts have been minimal thus far, but an updated Flex Modification option could lead to future GSE buyouts. Buyout risk for Ginnie-backed mortgages remains greater

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Checking In on the Banking Industry

2020 was a year of challenges in many aspects of life, business, and the economy. The start of 2021 brought a close to a tumultuous year and opened the door to a year of economic recovery and a hope for more normal times. In March 2020, the banking industry was

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Bond Market Behavior: Trusting the Fed on Inflation

The narrative for the US economy has shifted as we move into the second half of this year. Not long ago, financial markets were saturated with talk about inflation and rising interest rates, but after an initial surge from economic reopening and rebooting, the bond market is now telegraphing expectations

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Is Opportunity Cost Hurting Our Bottom Line?

As the US economy continues to work its way out of the recession brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, many economists debate what the future will hold. With inflation, asset bubbles, rising rates, and the effect of fiscal spending being hot topics during board and ALCO discussions, the question becomes

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Perspective on Inflation Dynamics in 2021

The Fear There is growing concern that the trillions of dollars of stimulus created by governments and central banks to fight the economic fallout of the coronavirus will explode through the economy and cause a surge in inflation in the second half of 2021. Sustained upward price pressures would cause

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Muni Bonds and Rate Volatility

Interest rates go up, prices go down. Ask any fixed income portfolio manager in the world what the first rule of investing in bonds is and you’ll hear the phrase above or something similar. And while the notion that bond prices decline as interest rates increase is not a matter

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Riding the Liquidity Waves

Before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold on the world and the United States, many community bankers watched the slow fall of their on-balance sheet liquidity. Throughout the last decade of economic expansion, many community banks’ loan demand consistently outpaced deposit growth. At the beginning of 2020, bankers’ expectations for the

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Forbearance Expiry Expectations

A wave of forbearance expirations expected this spring has investors anxiously awaiting clarity on what it will mean for the mortgage market. COVID-19 forbearance plans introduced by the CARES Act last year make it possible for any borrower with a mortgage backed by Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie to stop paying their loan for

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PPP Loans: Modeling the Madness

By Dale Sheller and Matt Harris As summer winds down, the same goes for the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) as August 8 was the final day for application. This critical but controversial component of the $2 trillion CARES ACT passed in March this year created over $525 billion in loans

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Last Call for LIBOR

With all the distractions and distracting challenges faced this year by the nation’s community bankers, it’s easy to understand how some may have lost track of an approaching deadline that could have significant consequences for their institutions and their customers. Unless something changes, and the authorities have been pretty clear

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