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The Market At 2009-07-02 15:55:15 ET
10-Year: 3.489 +12+/32   GNMAs:    EUR/USD: 1.4020   USD/JPY: 95.8000

(11:05) Backed off into and following the supply news

(10:42) Cranking to new highs ahead of supply announcements

(8:54) Long end playing catch-up, 10-yr yield back off to 3.487%

(8:43) Trade jumps on the data with the short end leading and the 2-yr yield back under 1%

(8:08) Quietly lower with data and supply announcements due and the ECB done

Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual -467K, consensus -365K, prior -322K (revised  -345K)

Unemployment rate: Actual 9.5%, consensus 9.6%, prior -9.4%

Hourly earnings: Actual 0.0%, consensus 0.1%, prior 0.2% (revised from 0.1%)

Average workweek: Actual 33.0, consensus 33.1, prior 33.1

Initial jobless claims: Actual 614K, consensus 615K, prior 630 (revised from 627K)

Factory orders: Actual 1.2%, consensus 0.8%, prior 0.5% (revised from 0.7%)

Early close for financial markets


Job Hopping: Bonds were bounced better in extreme light trade with the mid-curve leading higher the majority of the session with the 5-yr swinging to 2.401% from a 2.518% yield since the report. The long weekend and sliding stocks aided some, while the upcoming $73B in issuance to hit next week helped keep a lid on prices. Now that the pretty poor jobs report is over and done with the market will concern itself with how to take down all the supply coming through in the 3-30-yrs. The market was given some support on the less aggressive comments from ECB's Trichet following their rate meeting while global bonds were generally higher. The curve was swung to the week's steepest levels early, but came back to a more flattened 250 on the 2-10-yr yield spread. The dollar was given a flight-to-quality bid while the euro was also hampered by a less than stellar economic outlook. The euro was backed off to the week's lows, ticking through to 1.3990 while losing ground steeply to the yen which rode along with the buck, getting back to 95.71 late. . The week ahead offers little in the way of data outside of the ISM services report Mon so the auctions will be the focus. The first of the auctions hit Mon with the $8B 10-yr TIPS, while the Fed will be in buying in the 4-7-yr space as they continue to work their outright bond buying. The markets are closed Fri. Have a great holiday weekend.


The Interest Rate Outlook

Last Updated: 2009-07-02, 16:00:22 ET

Not Tonight
The Federal Open Market Committee kicked off its big meeting Tuesday with the market both eager and wary over what may come out of this latest gathering. The debate over whether or not they will talk about adding to their bond buying operations (at the moment capped at a mere $300B), is essentially over, with the market not expecting them to add.
That, the adding, was the...
Last Updated: 2009-06-29, 08:55:19 ET

After the 2000-2001 recession, steady job gains did not recur until October 2003. It was a classic "jobless recovery" that led to doubts as to whether it was actually a recovery at all.
The trends in 2009 and 2010 might be similar.
It would be a mistake to place too much emphasis on the May jobs report as signaling a move toward job gains. The trend certainly looks good:

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior
Jul 0208:30:00Nonfarm PayrollsJun-467K-400K-367K-322K
Jul 0208:30:01Unemployment RateJun9.5%9.6%9.6%9.4%
Jul 0208:30:02Hourly EarningsJun0.0%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Jul 0208:30:03Average WorkweekJun33.033.133.133.1
Jul 0208:30:04Initial Claims06/27614K605K615K630K
Jul 0210:00:00Factory OrdersMay1.2%0.8%0.9%0.5%
Jul 0610:00:00ISM ServicesJunNA46.044.0