Today is the first anniversary of the Fed’s initial rate hike in its campaign to crush inflation, and it’s Saint Patrick’s Day as well. Perfect…
Overview: The speed and magnitude of Fed rate hikes has been unprecedented, and we have emphasized that if continued it would likely force something to…
Fed Chairman Jay Powell warned us that the path to bringing down inflation was “probably going to be bumpy,” and indeed the bond market is…
A week ago today, we found out that the US unemployment rate for January was 3.4%, the lowest level since “Broadway Joe” Namath guaranteed the…
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan once observed that asset price bubbles go up very slowly, then when you least expect it, they reverse very sharply.…
Bank balance sheets were adversely affected in multiple ways by the speed and magnitude of the rising rate environment in 2022. Most noticeable was the…
We’re three weeks into a new year and across the curve the bond market is off to one of its best starts in decades. The…
All news is old news as the market veterans say. And inflation, it seems, is last year’s story if appetite for US Treasuries is any…
We entered the first week of the year with a stern reminder from the Federal Reserve by way of their minutes from last month’s FOMC…
In a holiday-shortened week, we gobbled up some small helpings of economic data but the main show was Wednesday’s release of the minutes for the…
Friendly inflation data and apparent political gridlock have put financial markets in a good mood as this week draws to a close. As the dust…
The first week of November was not boring for financial markets as we got an important read on both the labor market and the current…
That great monetary economist William Shakespeare wrote that “Those who rush, stumble and fall”. This observation may be starting to take hold with respect to…
US Inflation continued to misbehave in September, prompting another week of policymakers calling for rates to go higher and stay there until price pressures fade.…
Chaos and confusion in UK economic policy sent shockwaves rippling through markets this week, right on the heels of the Fed’s third consecutive 75bps rate…
The cost of borrowing continues to rise in order to fight the rising cost of everything else. The great post-pandemic inflation is very much alive,…
The Federal Reserve has numerous tools at its disposal that can be used to conduct monetary policy. Rate moves, reserve requirements, open market operations, asset…
Bond yields drifted higher this week as markets continued to digest the blunt words of Fed Chairman Powell last Friday regarding the central bank’s “overarching…
It’s the last week in August and that means two things: football season is about to kick off, and the Federal Reserve is hosting its…
In the last forty-five days, the yield on the 10yr T-Note has traded in a 100bps range, from a low of 2.51% to a high…